What will white (Manifold) play in move 25?
Check the game here: https://lichess.org/GF9YULQP
The game so far: 1. e4 e5 2. Bc4 Nf6 3. Nc3 Nc6 4. Nf3 Nxe4 5. Nxe4 d5 6. Bd3 dxe4 7. Rg1 Bf5 8. Bb5 exf3 9. Bxc6+ bxc6 10. Qxf3 Qd7 11. Qc3 f6 12. g4 Bxg4 13. Rxg4 h5 14. Re4 Qd5 15. Qf3 Rd8 16. d3 a6 17. b3 Qc5 18. Kd1 a5 19. Bb2 g6 20. Qxf6 Kd7 21. Rxe5 Qd6 22. Qxh8 Be7 23. Qg7 Rf8 24. Rxe7+ Qxe7
market for previous move:
For each response, the average probability in the last four hours before close is measured. With 75% probability, two moves will be randomly drawn, with weight proportional to those market probabilities. With 25% probabilities, three moves will be randomly drawn in the same way. Then for each of the two or three candidate moves, a conditional market is created.
The score of each move will be determined by the average probability in the last 4 hours. The move with higher score will be chosen (and the corresponding condditional market will resolve to the score one move later. The other market(s) will resolve N/A).
More details here:
https://manifold.markets/harfe/will-white-win-in-manifold-plays-ch
Any resign moves or draw offeers are not allowed in this move!
Invalid moves or duplicate moves will be removed from consideration.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ23 | |
| 2 | Ṁ15 | |
| 3 | Ṁ6 | |
| 4 | Ṁ4 |
Moves by average probability:
0.722730 Qxe7+
0.018840 Qd4+
0.005776 f3
0.002900 f4
pick a number between 1 and 999999996 (inclusive)
Outcomes by integer range:
[ 1-513309560] Qxe7+, Qd4+
[513309561-672752957] Qxe7+, Qd4+, f3
[672752958-830017523] Qxe7+, f3
[830017524-908955931] Qxe7+, f4
[908955932-986331097] Qxe7+, Qd4+, f4
[986331098-999511370] Qxe7+, f3, f4
[999511371-999806212] Qd4+, f3
[999806212-999999996] other
Hash of the complete table:
36e2849c80bfb62d99671b462964f946c34503ed323a450a5cef485f4e2f40a2
Perhaps we could start conditional picking the next couple of moves:
Move 26 conditional on 25: what will white play If the game continues 25. Qxe7+ Kxe7
(I’d bet on Ba3+)
Move 26 conditional on 25: what what will white play If the game continues 25. Qxe7+ Kc8
(I’d bet on Be5)
Move 27 conditional on 26: what will white play If the game continues 25. Qxe7+ Kxe7 26. Ba3+ Kanywhere
(that’s Bxf8)
Move 27 conditional on 26: what will white play If the game continues 25. Qxe7+ Kxc8 26. Be5 Kanywhere
(Qxc7+)
Then again, that’s probably too much. But an idea to keep in mind for forced moves?
@deagol oops that last one got a spurious capture
>Move 27 conditional on 26: what will white play If the game continues 25. Qxe7+ Kxc8 26. Be5 Kanywhere
should be:
Move 27 conditional on 26: what will white play If the game continues 25. Qxe7+ Kc8 26. Be5 Kanywhere
(Qxc7+)