What will white (Manifold) play in move 22?
Check the game here: https://lichess.org/GF9YULQP
The game so far: 1. e4 e5 2. Bc4 Nf6 3. Nc3 Nc6 4. Nf3 Nxe4 5. Nxe4 d5 6. Bd3 dxe4 7. Rg1 Bf5 8. Bb5 exf3 9. Bxc6+ bxc6 10. Qxf3 Qd7 11. Qc3 f6 12. g4 Bxg4 13. Rxg4 h5 14. Re4 Qd5 15. Qf3 Rd8 16. d3 a6 17. b3 Qc5 18. Kd1 a5 19. Bb2 g6 20. Qxf6 Kd7 21. Rxe5 Qd6
market for previous move:
For each response, the average probability in the last four hours before close is measured. With 75% probability, two moves will be randomly drawn, with weight proportional to those market probabilities. With 25% probabilities, three moves will be randomly drawn in the same way. Then for each of the two or three candidate moves, a conditional market is created.
The score of each move will be determined by the average probability in the last 4 hours. The move with higher score will be chosen (and the corresponding condditional market will resolve to the score one move later. The other market(s) will resolve N/A).
More details here:
https://manifold.markets/harfe/will-white-win-in-manifold-plays-ch
Any resign moves or draw offeers are not allowed in this move!
Invalid moves or duplicate moves will be removed from consideration.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ229 | |
| 2 | Ṁ23 | |
| 3 | Ṁ16 | |
| 4 | Ṁ14 |
Moves by average probability:
0.597118 Qxh8
0.050575 c3
0.048113 d4
0.045672 Bc1
0.045451 Qe7+
0.045319 Qg7+
0.045206 Qf5+
0.036962 Ba1 (removed)
0.009666 Ba3
0.004076 Rxa5
pick a number between 1 and 999999938 (inclusive)
Outcomes by integer range:
[ 1-116653972] Qxh8, c3
[116653973-227545833] Qxh8, d4
[227545834-332733932] Qxh8, Bc1
[332733933-437405003] Qxh8, Qe7+
[437405004-541768383] Qxh8, Qg7+
[541768384-645867904] Qxh8, Qf5+
[645867905-667895271] Qxh8, Ba3
[667895272-684400627] Qxh8, c3, d4
[684400628-699987273] Qxh8, c3, Bc1
[699987274-715491078] Qxh8, c3, Qe7+
[715491079-730945618] Qxh8, c3, Qg7+
[730945619-746357930] Qxh8, c3, Qf5+
[746357931-761106262] Qxh8, d4, Bc1
[761106263-775776174] Qxh8, d4, Qe7+
[775776175-790399450] Qxh8, d4, Qg7+
[790399451-804982753] Qxh8, d4, Qf5+
[804982754-818835373] Qxh8, Bc1, Qe7+
[818835374-832643936] Qxh8, Bc1, Qg7+
[832643937-846414736] Qxh8, Bc1, Qf5+
[846414737-860149840] Qxh8, Qe7+, Qg7+
[860149840-999999938] other
Hash of the complete table:
ab3a01c119ca53de913c247015aac080a7d3e3122bb66d8de8a784df64fc7e6c
@deagol I think Johnny was mostly hoping that Qxh8 would not be picked, which was like an 8% chance.
@deagol yes, output is:
Chance of candidate move
0.920977 Qxh8
0.227104 c3
0.216691 d4
0.206292 Bc1
0.205345 Qe7+
0.204781 Qg7+
0.204297 Qf5+
0.045312 Ba3
0.019201 Rxa5
0.000000 Ba1
(visible if you say "y" to "print more info?")
@harfe thanks! I only read the script, not gonna run it (nor want to deal with all the hassle to do so)
@1941159478 oh I didn’t mean to say “too high” as in 8% seemed wrong to me, just that I was trying to get it lower.