What will white (Manifold) play in move 21?
Check the game here: https://lichess.org/GF9YULQP
The game so far: 1. e4 e5 2. Bc4 Nf6 3. Nc3 Nc6 4. Nf3 Nxe4 5. Nxe4 d5 6. Bd3 dxe4 7. Rg1 Bf5 8. Bb5 exf3 9. Bxc6+ bxc6 10. Qxf3 Qd7 11. Qc3 f6 12. g4 Bxg4 13. Rxg4 h5 14. Re4 Qd5 15. Qf3 Rd8 16. d3 a6 17. b3 Qc5 18. Kd1 a5 19. Bb2 g6 20. Qxf6 Kd7
market for previous move:
For each response, the average probability in the last four hours before close is measured. With 75% probability, two moves will be randomly drawn, with weight proportional to those market probabilities. With 25% probabilities, three moves will be randomly drawn in the same way. Then for each of the two or three candidate moves, a conditional market is created.
The score of each move will be determined by the average probability in the last 4 hours. The move with higher score will be chosen (and the corresponding condditional market will resolve to the score one move later. The other market(s) will resolve N/A).
More details here:
https://manifold.markets/harfe/will-white-win-in-manifold-plays-ch
Any resign moves or draw offeers are not allowed in this move!
Invalid moves or duplicate moves will be removed from consideration.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ216 | |
| 2 | Ṁ63 |
Moves by average probability:
0.484248 Rxe5
0.168501 Qxh8
0.069496 b4
0.044561 Qe6+
0.044113 Qxc6+
0.043642 Qd6+
0.015835 Bd4
0.011858 Qg7+
0.011767 Qf5+
0.011425 Bxe5
0.003671 Qf4
0.000000 Qe7 (removed)
pick a number between 1 and 999999884 (inclusive)
Outcomes by integer range:
[ 1-249328860] Rxe5, Qxh8
[249328861-347740313] Rxe5, b4
[347740314-410230376] Rxe5, Qe6+
[410230377-472081558] Rxe5, Qxc6+
[472081559-533261134] Rxe5, Qd6+
[533261135-577249162] Rxe5, Qxh8, b4
[577249163-604525160] Rxe5, Qxh8, Qe6+
[604525161-631511451] Rxe5, Qxh8, Qxc6+
[631511452-658193462] Rxe5, Qxh8, Qd6+
[658193463-682743307] Qxh8, b4
[682743308-704715024] Rxe5, Bd4
[704715025-721144146] Rxe5, Qg7+
[721144147-737446817] Rxe5, Qf5+
[737446818-753273342] Rxe5, Bxe5
[753273343-768801957] Qxh8, Qe6+
[768801958-784170762] Qxh8, Qxc6+
[784170763-799371595] Qxh8, Qd6+
[799371596-808733042] Rxe5, Qxh8, Bd4
[808733043-817870446] Rxe5, b4, Qe6+
[817870447-826909912] Rxe5, b4, Qxc6+
[826909912-999999884] other
Hash of the complete table:
6b113e462b5d9cd882750f7b5eb77381ec1b2a410732d64fa9b89221645036d6