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MANIFOLD
[Manifold Plays Chess 3] If we play 22. Qxh8, what is the score after move 23?
4
Ṁ110Ṁ78
resolved Apr 26
Resolved as
73%

Check the game here: https://lichess.org/GF9YULQP.

The game so far: 1. e4 e5 2. Bc4 Nf6 3. Nc3 Nc6 4. Nf3 Nxe4 5. Nxe4 d5 6. Bd3 dxe4 7. Rg1 Bf5 8. Bb5 exf3 9. Bxc6+ bxc6 10. Qxf3 Qd7 11. Qc3 f6 12. g4 Bxg4 13. Rxg4 h5 14. Re4 Qd5 15. Qf3 Rd8 16. d3 a6 17. b3 Qc5 18. Kd1 a5 19. Bb2 g6 20. Qxf6 Kd7 21. Rxe5 Qd6

The other candidate move is 22. Qe7+

The conditional market for the other move is here:



If the value (averaged over the last 4 hours before close) of this market is higher than in the other market, then this market resolves PROB to the score after move 23. Otherwise, it resolves N/A. The score after move 23 is the value (averaged over the last 4 hours) of the conditional market of the winning move in move 23.

Note that when the game ends, the score will be 1.0 - #moves x 0.0004 if white wins, 0.5 - #moves x 0.0002 if its a draw, or 0.0 if we lose.

More details for the overall game here:

https://manifold.markets/harfe/will-white-win-in-manifold-plays-ch

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predictedYES

Average probability: 0.731178

probabilistic rounded: 73%

predictedYES

Qxh8: Average probability: 0.706671

Qe7+: Average probability: 0.292285

Qxh8 wins