What will white (Manifold) play in move 20?
Check the game here: https://lichess.org/GF9YULQP
The game so far: 1. e4 e5 2. Bc4 Nf6 3. Nc3 Nc6 4. Nf3 Nxe4 5. Nxe4 d5 6. Bd3 dxe4 7. Rg1 Bf5 8. Bb5 exf3 9. Bxc6+ bxc6 10. Qxf3 Qd7 11. Qc3 f6 12. g4 Bxg4 13. Rxg4 h5 14. Re4 Qd5 15. Qf3 Rd8 16. d3 a6 17. b3 Qc5 18. Kd1 a5 19. Bb2 g6
market for previous move:
For each response, the average probability in the last four hours before close is measured. With 75% probability, two moves will be randomly drawn, with weight proportional to those market probabilities. With 25% probabilities, three moves will be randomly drawn in the same way. Then for each of the two or three candidate moves, a conditional market is created.
The score of each move will be determined by the average probability in the last 4 hours. The move with higher score will be chosen (and the corresponding condditional market will resolve to the score one move later. The other market(s) will resolve N/A).
More details here:
https://manifold.markets/harfe/will-white-win-in-manifold-plays-ch
Any resign moves or draw offeers are not allowed in this move!
Invalid moves or duplicate moves will be removed from consideration.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ124 | |
| 2 | Ṁ80 | |
| 3 | Ṁ12 | |
| 4 | Ṁ2 |
Moves by average probability:
0.587114 Qxf6
0.060209 Qg4
0.060209 Qxh5
0.043855 Qf5
0.031910 Rg4
0.031181 Rb4
0.030453 Rd4
0.020315 d4
0.009095 Rc4
0.003055 h4
0.003053 Qh1
0.003049 h3
0.003049 Qg2
0.003017 a4
0.003016 Ra4
0.003013 b4
0.003013 a3
0.003009 Ke1
0.003003 Ke2
0.003001 Rc1
0.003000 Kd2
0.002997 Kc1
0.002996 Rb1
0.002993 c4
0.002987 c3
0.002984 b4 (removed)
0.002981 Bc1
0.002981 Ba3 (removed)
0.002977 Qh3
0.002972 Qe2
0.002971 Qg3
0.002971 Re1
0.002971 Qf4
0.002968 Qe3
0.002966 Re2
0.002960 Re3
0.002956 Rh4
0.002955 Rf4
0.001554 Rg4 (removed)
0.000388 Bxe5
0.000379 Ba3
0.000028 d4 (removed)
0.000016 Rb4 (removed)
pick a number between 1 and 999995372 (inclusive)
Outcomes by integer range:
[ 1-106134674] Qxf6, Qg4
[106134675-212269348] Qxf6, Qxh5
[212269349-289172054] Qxf6, Qf5
[289172055-344919446] Qxf6, Rg4
[344919447-399381679] Qxf6, Rb4
[399381680-452559344] Qxf6, Rd4
[452559345-487924948] Qxf6, d4
[487924949-503704837] Qxf6, Rc4
[503704838-518993043] Qxf6, Qg4, Qxh5
[518993044-529820590] Qxf6, Qg4, Qf5
[529820591-540648137] Qxf6, Qxh5, Qf5
[540648138-548376127] Qxf6, Qg4, Rg4
[548376128-556104117] Qxf6, Qxh5, Rg4
[556104118-563647020] Qxf6, Qg4, Rb4
[563647021-571189923] Qxf6, Qxh5, Rb4
[571189924-578548177] Qxf6, Qg4, Rd4
[578548178-585906431] Qxf6, Qxh5, Rd4
[585906432-592255981] Qg4, Qxh5
[592255982-597722640] Qxf6, Qf5, Rg4
[597722641-603058214] Qxf6, Qf5, Rb4
[603058214-999995372] other
Hash of the complete table:
5f38c157845c8f4f609f0828342aa8186971da21ce1da39a38951da944796f1d
@harfe the description says duplicates will be removed, I assume that means the first instance stays? Like, I had Ba3 first, and @AndrewHebb got d4 well before @JuJumper stormed the place.