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MANIFOLD
[Manifold Plays Chess 3] If we play 21. Qd6+, what is the score after move 22?
4
Ṁ110Ṁ40
resolved Apr 22
Resolved
N/A

Check the game here: https://lichess.org/GF9YULQP.

The game so far: 1. e4 e5 2. Bc4 Nf6 3. Nc3 Nc6 4. Nf3 Nxe4 5. Nxe4 d5 6. Bd3 dxe4 7. Rg1 Bf5 8. Bb5 exf3 9. Bxc6+ bxc6 10. Qxf3 Qd7 11. Qc3 f6 12. g4 Bxg4 13. Rxg4 h5 14. Re4 Qd5 15. Qf3 Rd8 16. d3 a6 17. b3 Qc5 18. Kd1 a5 19. Bb2 g6 20. Qxf6 Kd7

The other candidate moves are 21. Qxh8 and 21. Qxc6+

The conditional markets for the other moves are here:


If the value (averaged over the last 4 hours before close) of this market is higher than in the other markets, then this market resolves PROB to the score after move 22. Otherwise, it resolves N/A. The score after move 22 is the value (averaged over the last 4 hours) of the conditional market of the winning move in move 22.

Note that when the game ends, the score will be 1.0 - #moves x 0.0004 if white wins, 0.5 - #moves x 0.0002 if its a draw, or 0.0 if we lose.

More details for the overall game here:

https://manifold.markets/harfe/will-white-win-in-manifold-plays-ch

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predictedNO

Rxe5: Average probability: 0.705960
Qxc6+: Average probability: 0.231780

Qd6+: Average probability: 0.233452


Rxe5 wins