Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the probability displayed for its "Yes" outcome is strictly below 50.00% at 00:00 UTC on January 1, 2026. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". The official probability will be taken directly from this market's page on Manifold Markets at the specified time.

Background

This is a self-referential market, meaning its outcome depends on its own probability at a future date.

Considerations

Traders should note that the probability displayed on the market is a reflection of current trading activity and can fluctuate until the resolution date.