Will Open AI release a model that can reliably compute a 20 digits multiplication correctly in 2025?
5
100Ṁ1002026
24%
chance
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The model must correctly compute the product of two randomly chosen 20-digit numbers with at least 90% accuracy, meaning it may produce incorrect results in at most 10 out of 100 independent trials.
The model must perform this computation without executing code, scripts, or relying on external computational tools.
A YES resolution will occur immediately upon verification that a model meets these criteria. If no such model is verified by the end of the year, the resolution will be NO.
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