Will GPT4 cause a similar economic shock to the one from COVID?

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resolved Dec 23

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This guy thinks so: https://twitter.com/Nick_Davidov/status/1606688723265277952

It's basically this market but much less confusing: https://manifold.markets/RonnyFernandez/will-i-ronny-fernandez-think-that-e

Resolves 9 months after GPT4 is released and broadly available (anyone can access it, but they might have to pay money). If GPT-4 is never released in 2023, this will resolve NO.

What constitutes a similar economic shock to COVID is up to my discretion.

Close date updated to 2023-12-22 3:59 pm

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Happy to argue with anyone who disagrees, but this should very obviously resolve no. (you can literally see the effect of COVID on virtually all economic measures—GDP, unemployment, inflation). Not true of GPT4.

Seems like there haven't been much trading on this market after GPT4 came out. What do we think, how is it looking? I don't know any stats but anecdotally I've already seen a bunch of work put into integrating GPT4 in a lot of places but OTOH the COVID shcoks were really big so I dunno.