This guy thinks so: https://twitter.com/Nick_Davidov/status/1606688723265277952
It's basically this market but much less confusing: https://manifold.markets/RonnyFernandez/will-i-ronny-fernandez-think-that-e
Resolves 9 months after GPT4 is released and broadly available (anyone can access it, but they might have to pay money). If GPT-4 is never released in 2023, this will resolve NO.
What constitutes a similar economic shock to COVID is up to my discretion.
Close date updated to 2023-12-22 3:59 pm
🏅 Top traders
# | Name | Total profit |
---|---|---|
1 | Ṁ177 | |
2 | Ṁ74 | |
3 | Ṁ50 | |
4 | Ṁ47 | |
5 | Ṁ35 |
Seems like there haven't been much trading on this market after GPT4 came out. What do we think, how is it looking? I don't know any stats but anecdotally I've already seen a bunch of work put into integrating GPT4 in a lot of places but OTOH the COVID shcoks were really big so I dunno.