How many Republican votes in the House will the Respect for Marriage act get?
5
79
100
resolved Jul 19
Resolved as
22%

Resolves via PROB to # of republican YEA votes for the Repsect for Marriage Act / 211 (number of republican congressmen) * 100%

Context: https://thehill.com/changing-america/respect/equality/3564442-house-to-vote-on-respect-for-marriage-act-in-response-to-clarence-thomas-opinion/

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47 Republicans ended up voting for it (along with every Democrat) https://www.insider.com/47-republicans-vote-in-favor-bill-protecting-same-sex-marriage-2022-7
This is exactly how numeric markets work now, you could have used one of those (just FYI :))
predicted NO
I think the percentage of Republican votes is a more meaningful number at a glance though
predicted NO
@jack agreed
predicted NO
I would be surprised if it is higher than 10%
predicted NO
Apparently I was surprised