Will there be a murder in Rincon Hill, San Francisco within the next year?
resolved Apr 8

This prediction market question aims to forecast the likelihood of a murder happening in Rincon Hill, San Francisco within the next year. The question is prompted by the recent murder of Bob Lee and concerns about safety in the area. Also my friend is moving there.

The question will be resolved as "Yes" if there is a reported murder in Rincon Hill, San Francisco between now and one year from today's date. The question will resolve as "No" if there are no reported murders in Rincon Hill, San Francisco during that same timeframe.

Resolves N/A if any form of market manipulation in real life is suspected.

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opened a Ṁ1 NO at 9% order

the only one i’m seeing is the apr 4th one, i’m guessing inspired this market (created on the 5th)

Would you be willing to resolves YES due to a non-human murder, i.e. someone poisoning a mouse? [which has almost certainly happened today]

@Heliscone No. But what happened?

@footgun Oh no, I'm just going off the fact that Rincon Hill is not small, and people have mouse-traps kill mice all the time

San Franciscan born and raised here - you can request escort services if you're that concerned with safety. For your friend thinking about moving to the Rincon Hill area, consider sharing this resource: https://www.theeastcut.org/street-services/

@LilianMar Thank you!