Some examples of disasters:

-Nuclear strike

-Pandemic

-AI mishap

-Famine

-Tsunami

-Infrastructure collapse, such as from a solar flare

If a disaster affects the city of San Francisco, we'll refer to the total deaths attributed during the calendar year. We then calculate that as a percent of the prior population. If it's 10% or more, we resolve Yes. If disasters never kill 10%+ in a year, then we resolve No in 2029-Jan.

If there are multiple disasters then we would include them all, for the given year, and add their percents. We would include tourists, or whoever became part of the reported death toll.