fmaster's calibration
Grade: C-, Score: -7.17
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when fmaster bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
40%
50%
60%
70%
- Will Kai Cenat take a break from streaming within a month (like Mizkif) due to the allegations of him helping his friend cover up sexual assault?NOṀ100
- Will Destiny tweet something related to the January 6th Capitol attack on January 6th?NOṀ100
- [1K subsidy]Will the debate between Destiny and Ben Shapiro that is hosted by Lex Friedman be published in January 2024?YESṀ100
80%
90%
95%