Will we have end to end AI generated anime series by the end of 2023?
186
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resolved Jan 1
Resolved
NO

Resolution Criteria

Script, animation, music, character avatars, character voices, what else?- all of which are AI generated. Doesn't have to be a single multimodal model, the humans can do the stitching then together work.

This question is open until 31/December/2023.

What does stitching mean?

If the human is stitching together scenes according to the AI-generated script, then it is okay, where each scene is produced independently, including music, avatars, video, etc.

If the human is taking bits of random scenes and stitching them together based on their own best judgement, then no. As it will be not easy to always determine what's the case, I can shoot an email to the creator and see what they have to say.

The role of human basically reduced to ~ an automation agent.

Edit: Has to be non-crappy

Series and episode Length

Counts as series of there's atleast one coherent story line across multiple episodes. number of episodes must be >=3.

As far as I know, most episodes in anime are ~20 to 24 (or more) mins long, so i'll take that as a general guideline for minimum length.

The publisher doesn't have to be a major studio but the won't qualify for this market if it's partial snippets and released without a coherent storyline. Should be a series not a single episode.


Trading

Please try to trade on the spirit of the market rather than exploiting loopholes in my language used for description. Always free to ask for clarification in the comments when in doubt.

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A couple of questions:

Can the series use AI-generated models (2D and 3D)? For example, it would be quite easy to create an animation using something like Gacha Studio software. Would this software (or a "less shitty" version) be allowed? To get AI to create a similar animation without using any kind of model software would be difficult (for now).

Does the show have to demonstrate a certain amount of internal consistency? For example, would these be neccessary to resolve YES:

  • Major plot points are not left unresolved/unaddressed

  • Characters who were enemies or who were friendly remain so throughout the show, except when some reason is given for them not to

  • Characters have distinct, well-developed personalities which are consistent throughout the show

It seems that these sorts of things would require somewhat advanced memory systems which aren't currently found in AI technology.

Finally, does it have to be a fairly standard style of television anime? There are plenty of gimmicky anime out there, as well as experimental or extremely stylistic anime. It might be easier to create an AI anime in one of these ways. Can it be one of these, or must it be a standard style, or is it more like if-it-feels-like-anime-then-its-anime-regardless-of-these-things?

predicted YES

@calderknight re: Gacha studios, will check it out.

Does the show have to demonstrate a certain amount of internal consistency?

Yes, it shouldnt be obviously bad or incomplete. Coherence is needed.

if-it-feels-like-anime-then-its-anime-regardless-of-these-things?

Yeah, vibes of anime is fine. Must have coherent plotline, must not be obviously bad, must make sense, characters have coherence, the sentences must make sense, scene transition must be sensible etc.

predicted YES

Editing title for clarity.

Do we have a way to operationalize "non-crappy"? :)

(Suggestions: "MAL rating > 5" (might be confounded by novelty value), "imdb > 4", "compares favorably to staring at the wall", "compares favorably to Mars of Destruction")

predicted YES

https://twitter.com/fablesimulation/status/1681352904152850437?s=46&t=IJDqz7vSZa4dTPyRFD_hCA

“Create episodes of TV shows with a prompt - SHOW-1 will write, animate, direct, voice, edit for you.”

predicted YES

@EMcNeill That should qualify imho.

predicted YES

@light Oh boo

predicted NO

@EMcNeill Even if this turns out to be a real model, they'd still need to produce 3 episodes of at least 20 minutes to resolve the market. A tech demo with the theoretical capability to do it isn't enough, unless it actually does it.

I could technically do this right now, although the result would be rather shit and wouldn't work at all as a substitute for a real anime show. However would it qualify, given that it's a somewhat coherent plot spanning three 22 minute episodes?

@levifinkelstein If there's a AI-generated plot/story per episode, and a coherence between episodes, and AI generated characters and AI generated voice for those characters with AI generated animations for the flow of the episode and some AI generated music, with the characters actually following along the script/storyline (coherence), then I think it would probably qualify, but cant say for sure without knowing what it is

@firstuserhere BTW there are same markets as this one for every year till 2029 i think

@levifinkelstein If this could technically resolve now this is a worthless market imo. Has to be non shit for this to mean anything.

@SneakySly Yep, I added "non-crappy" to the description; earlier i had clarified in a comment below

How shitty can it be? I think this is very plausible but it will for sure be trash

I updated description to reflect my clarifications in the comments so far, so that details don't get buried and hopefully people trade based on the up to date description.

predicted NO

Is there a minimum episode length?

@LukeHanks afaik, most episodes are ~20 to 24 (or more) mins long, so i'll take that as a general guideline for minimum length

predicted YES

I need more clarification on the resolution criteria here. By stitching it together do you mean allowing a human to cut together the various AI generated video segments, integrating the music, vocal and effects tracks into a cohesive episode?

@marnet If the human is stitching together scenes according to the AI-generated script, then it is okay, where each scene is produced independently, including music, avatars, video, etc.

If the human is taking bits of random scenes and stitching them together based on their own best judgement, then no. As it will be not easy to always determine what's the case, I can shoot an email to the creator and see what they have to say.

The role of human basically reduced to ~ an automation agent

predicted NO

@firstuserhere What if it's an animation of a character running in circles while another says Sugoi on every lap finish? Add some piano AI music in the background. The issue with this is that most people are probably imagining Demon Slayer, when they read the title, while in reality it will probably look worse than Ping Pong the Animation.

@light Yeah, that's true, I need a better way to describe "non-crappy". Anyone wanna take a shot at how to say that?

predicted NO

@firstuserhere I don't know. It's tough. You can probably make a decent anime without any dialogue or music or more than 1 character. It can look like shit but still be captivating. There's too many variables. Maybe an example video or an episode of what you have in mind as the bare minimum for YES?

@light okay i will try to find one qualifying and one non qualifying example, and add those

predicted YES

@firstuserhere What you're describing as "automation agent" sounds like the role of an Editor.

You might want to add visual effects and sound effects to things that must be AI generated if that helps to remove the vague "what else?". I don't think we'll see a viable AI video editor for a few years so excluding editing makes some sense.

As far as quality requirements. MTV ran a show in the 90s called Dr. Katz that was produced using early computer animation tools. We could use that as a bar? It had a cohesive story and characters and I believe even a narrative arch. The animation style was also consistent.

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