Resolves YES as soon as Manifold drops below a 7-day average of at least 900 Daily Active Users.
Resolves NO otherwise.
The data source will be the stats page! For reference, on May 3, i see 1032 DAUs.
An attempt at asking: Will manifold be able to retain the influx of new users and keep growing?
1,000
3.00🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ124 | |
| 2 | Ṁ110 | |
| 3 | Ṁ98 | |
| 4 | Ṁ81 | |
| 5 | Ṁ64 |
@JubileeYoung avg 7d DAUs was 820 before that. Out of a couple thousand new users <100 need to be retained. If anything YES is overvalued.
@ShadowyZephyr I mean I don't feel inclined to "go deep" on this position, obviously, or I'd commit more Ṁ to it, but my hypothesis is basically "user behavior can be incredibly spiky and 7 day average doesn't smooth out all the spikes". We got 28 days and all it takes is 1, basically.
@JubileeYoung no it takes more than 1 that's the point of a 7 day average. and I don't think it'll be that spiky