Will Joe Biden receive more than 51.00% of the popular vote in the 2024 general presidential election? | Manifold

Will Joe Biden receive more than 51.00% of the popular vote in the 2024 general presidential election?

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resolved Jul 21

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I’ll resolve it early if e.g. he drops out of the running or dies before then but otherwise I’ll wait for the official count to come in.

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#🇺🇸 US Politics

#🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election

#2024 US Election

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bought Ṁ8,667 NO

If the third party candidates don't drop out, this is extremely unlikely. Hillary beat Trump in the popular vote and she only got 48% of the total vote. 7M people voted for other candidates in 2016.

bought Ṁ100 NO

@MichaeldelaMaza Biden did hit 51.3% in 2020 though, which had some third party candidates (the ones this time seem slightly higher profile but I wouldn't count on it)

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