This market resolves as YES if I am promoted to Diamond rank for the Manifold season beginning in June 2023. Otherwise, it resolves as NO.
As of May 31, 2023, I am at Platinum rank, and ranked #3 in my group. As long as I am ranked #5 or above by the end of the season, I will advance to Diamond rank. It is probably impossible for me to be demoted to Gold rank this season. (Currently, I am about 2000 mana above #6, and 6000 mana above #21.)
This market resolves as N/A if Manifold cancels the league system before the end of May (which would make me very sad). Since the market's resolution criteria are not entirely within my control, I reserve the right to bet on this market; I am actively trying to get this market to resolve as YES, but that does not mean I will succeed. In June, I will provide a link to my Season 2 rank group to prove that I am either Diamond or Platinum rank, and then immediately resolve this market to YES or NO depending on which rank I am in.
🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ75 | |
| 2 | Ṁ28 | |
| 3 | Ṁ5 | |
| 4 | Ṁ3 | |
| 5 | Ṁ3 |
Resolves as YES because the finalized rankings have me at Rank 3, which promotes to Diamond. Here's the link to my group, as proof.
@evergreenemily Huh, I'm at rank 2 now. I assume the more recent rankings are correct, but I'm not 100% sure. Either way, I'm certainly in the top 5, so I feel confident that resolving this as YES was the correct decision.
@evergreenemily in 38 minutes the leagues will enter a 'pseudo-random' stage, where a secret time from +0 to +24 hrs will be picked, when the actual leaderboard will be frozen and finalized. Distribution of users into their new divisions and cohorts might take even longer, but I think at most 3 days.
* 35 min
@MayMeta Oh, interesting! Thank you for telling me, it gives me a way better idea of when I can expect to resolve this.
