Will US reported losses from voice-cloning or deepfake impersonation scams exceed $1 billion for calendar year 2027? | Manifold

Will US reported losses from voice-cloning or deepfake impersonation scams exceed $1 billion for calendar year 2027?

1

Ṁ100Ṁ5

2028

48%

chance

1H

6H

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Resolves YES if the FBI IC3 annual report for 2027, the FTC Consumer Sentinel data for 2027, or an official statement from either agency puts US losses from scams that used AI voice cloning or deepfake impersonation at $1 billion or more for the year. If neither agency breaks the figure out and no official source gives one by June 30, 2028, resolves NO.

Background: in September 2026 I asked an AI for its ten-year forecast, best case and worst case. Its 2027 worst-case list included "Voice cloning drives fraud into the billions; calls stop being trusted." I am making a market for each checkable point so the forecast can be scored. The full forecast is free: The Forecast: 2027 to 2036, best case and worst case

The Forecast: 2027 to 2036, best case and worst case

The ten-year AI forecast the novel Two Lives grew out of. Ten points a year, both columns, with its confidence for each year.

Get

1,000

to start trading!

People are also trading

Internationally active financial institution experiences AI-assisted cyberattack resulting in losses >$1B before 2028?

-13% 1d80% chance

Will AI impersonation on social media cause a minimum of $50M+ in reported US corporate losses in 2026?

When will a bank offering voice authentication remove this option due to deepfake risk?

Will there be an AI loss of control incident that causes over $100 million in damages in 2026?

Will AI innovations in computer hacking, financial crime, and fraud cost the world more than one trillion dollars by 2030?

Will AI innovations in computer hacking, financial crime, and fraud cost the world more than one hundred billion dollars by 2030?

Will AI innovations in computer hacking, financial crime, and fraud cost the world more than a billion dollars by 2030?

Will AI innovations in computer hacking, financial crime, and fraud cost the world more than ten billion dollars by 2030?

By the end of 2027 will a deepfake of a famous person be reported as real by mainstream news organizations

Will AI revenues be greater than $500 billion by end of 2027?

Related questions

Internationally active financial institution experiences AI-assisted cyberattack resulting in losses >$1B before 2028?

Will AI impersonation on social media cause a minimum of $50M+ in reported US corporate losses in 2026?

When will a bank offering voice authentication remove this option due to deepfake risk?

Will there be an AI loss of control incident that causes over $100 million in damages in 2026?

Will AI innovations in computer hacking, financial crime, and fraud cost the world more than one trillion dollars by 2030?

Will AI innovations in computer hacking, financial crime, and fraud cost the world more than one hundred billion dollars by 2030?

Will AI innovations in computer hacking, financial crime, and fraud cost the world more than a billion dollars by 2030?

Will AI innovations in computer hacking, financial crime, and fraud cost the world more than ten billion dollars by 2030?

By the end of 2027 will a deepfake of a famous person be reported as real by mainstream news organizations

Will AI revenues be greater than $500 billion by end of 2027?