Resolution Criteria This market will resolve to YES if Tesla's market capitalization reaches or exceeds $6 trillion USD at any point during normal market trading hours (9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET on days when the US stock market is open) before January 1, 2031. Update 2026-04-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - In the event of a SpaceX/Tesla merger: if Tesla no longer trades under the TSLA ticker, it will resolve NO Resolution is based on Tesla's market cap under the TSLA ticker, not stock price

Unlikely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 19% chance (29 traders, as of Apr 8, 2026).

Will TSLA a reach a 6 trillion dollar market cap before 2031?

Ṁ100Ṁ14k

2031

19%

chance

ALL

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve to YES if Tesla's market capitalization reaches or exceeds $6 trillion USD at any point during normal market trading hours (9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET on days when the US stock market is open) before January 1, 2031.

Update 2026-04-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - In the event of a SpaceX/Tesla merger: if Tesla no longer trades under the TSLA ticker, it will resolve NO
- Resolution is based on Tesla's market cap under the TSLA ticker, not stock price

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How will you account for this if there is a Spacex merger?

@BillClintonBubba doesn't make any difference. If TSLA gets to $6 Million in time then this will resolve as yes. If SpaceX buys Tesla and it traids under another ticker then it is no longer Tesla and will resolve as no. This is Market Cap not stock price.