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MANIFOLD
Will TIME's 2026 Person of the Year be EXCLUSIVELY one person?
21
Ṁ100Ṁ454
Dec 31
50%
chance

This market resolves YES if Time's 2026 Person of the Year is exactly one specific human person, with no addendums or funny business (e.g. "Taylor Swift," "Ben Bernanke," "Donald Trump," etc.). This market is different from the other similar market, as this market will resolve NO in cases of a person + a concept.

This market resolves NO if Time's 2026 Person of the Year is:

  • A group or concept (e.g. "The Architects of A.I.," "You")

  • A person and a concept (e.g. "Volodymyr Zelenskyy and the Spirit of Ukraine," or theoretically "Sam Altman and ChatGPT")

  • More than one specific named individual (e.g. "Joe Biden and Kamala Harris", "Ronald Reagan and Yuri Andropov")

  • Not a person (e.g. "The Computer", or theoretically "ChatGPT," "AI")

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I now like to think of certain new markets as curses on the world that bring about whatever outcome would lead to the most ambiguous resolution.

So, thanks to this market, we're probably assuring an outcome like:

> "The TIME Person of the year is Trump", where 80% of the article focuses on Donald Trump but the other 20% of the article seems to imply that "Trump" is a broader concept including his business, brand, and other members of the Trump family.

> "The TIME Person of the year is Satoshi Nakamoto", who is indeed a single figure, but could have been created by several humans. Is he one person? Maybe? Kind of?

> "The TIME Person of the year is Exclusively One Person". Welp

> "The TIME Person of the year is Charlie Kirk". He has passed away, is he still a single person with no funny business? Or is he now more of a concept since he is in the afterlife.

massive props to Exclusively Oneperson on their monumental achievements this year

anyway, i can at least answer at least two of these definitively: A dead person like Kirk would count, and "Trump" would count unless it's something like "Trump, Inc" in the headline