Skip to main content
MANIFOLD
Will US government action cause a non-Anthropic company to restrict availability of a model in 2026?
6
Ṁ100Ṁ249
Dec 31
27%
chance

Apparent prior restraint doesn't count; the model must be available to some set of users and then have reduced availability. The reduced availability must be on-surface-appearance-obviously due to US government action.

Exception: Ceasing to support any services in some country (e.g. OpenAI removing a country from https://developers.openai.com/api/docs/supported-countries) does NOT count.

Market context
OpenAI
US Gov't AI Policy
AI Governance & Policy
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

People are also trading

Will OpenAI delay OR withdraw a model release due to demands by the US US government by EOY 2026?
+7% 1d97% chance
Will more US AI models be subject to US export control directives by the end of 2026?
+7% 1d35% chance
Will the US government restrict access to an OpenAI model in 2026?
+47% 1d80% chance
Will a government mandate restrict access to an OpenAI or xAI model on security or safety grounds before 2027?
+6% 1d91% chance
Will Anthropic legally challenge the US government directive to suspend access to Fable?
7% chance
Will the US government take control of Anthropic or its major technologies before 2030?
20% chance
Will the US government functionally seize control of Anthropic by EOY2027?
15% chance
Will a US entity force OpenAI to delete any mainline DALL-E models by the end of 2026?
12% chance
Will a non-Anthropic company make a Mythos-class model generally available worldwide in 2026?
86% chance
Will any OpenAI models be restricted to US in 2026?
28% chance