What if astronomers pull a Pluto on us and reclassify it as a dwarf-galaxy? 🤷

Reclassifying the galaxy type of the Milky Way shouldn’t change anything about its existence, so the market would still resolve yes

how cool would it be if this resolved no tho? no? nobody else likes that scenario?

This seems unfair. If @Simon74fe can't sell his No with a profit, he can just N/A.

I think this is an example of the kind of N/A resolution @dreev tries to argue against, and he's right in cases like these.

@Primer Ah, good point! Probably the market creator wasn't aiming to abuse that loophole but now that it's pointed out, maybe they'll be happy to commit to not N/A'ing? Btw, here's the poll where I've tried to spell out the arguments against N/A like the one @Primer is referring to: https://manifold.markets/dreev/how-bad-is-it-to-resolve-a-market-a

@Primer @dreev Fair points. I've decided to just remove the N/A clause

screw it i'm selling

So.... I just came by to dump a bunch of cash because I'm not seeing anything I super want to bet on right now.

Why is this at 95%?

Does that mean I could dump my cash here and then it'll go down to 92% right when I need mana?

This feels like... the price of bonds thing. Where you can lose money on a sure bet if you have to sell early.

If all the traders together suddenly see a chance to make 20% profits elsewhere, and everyone wants to do it at the same time, everyone sells here all at once. And so this... isn't actually that stable of a cash position in a group-think environment. If I expect 20% opportunities that everyone can see to pop up occasionally, I guess I should hold my mana instead of getting the 5% gains. Huh.

@DannyqnOht That's exactly what this market is supposed to model

@Simon74fe So.... What's a fair price here then?

Is this supposed to be a market that tracks the shared consensus across manifold of "how much will we need mana in the next month"? Like, if manifold users as a whole think they can get 20% without this market, then the price here is cheap; and if they think they can get 4% without this market, then the price here is expensive? What's a "correct" price, and how does that fit in with the added confusion of this resolving to true in 4 years (so at 95c there's actually some small growth here)?

Also, how can manifold as a whole expect to make more than the base 5%? Is this a market for "do you think you're worse than the average user at getting a return on your investment"? And only people who do think that should buy yes, and people who don't think that should not participate? I also can't see why anyone would buy no... Except in the hopes that the yes holders were actually wrong about their own goodness-at-betting (which while possibly true, definitely true initially for me, seems like the kinda bet I don't want to make in the long run).

@DannyqnOht They cancelled the 5% interest payments.

@travis ~Wait really? Last I saw was here, where did they say they were cancelling interest?~ Nvm link was at the top.

Guys I think the Milky Way is gonna be eradicated in 4 years.

For context, there's lots of discussion about the Jan 9th update here, which I assume is what prompted this market.

Interesting. I did not expect so much demand for 0.25% return per year

@Simon74fe Admins announced 5% APY on all markets, redeemed when the market resolves

I guess it won't pay any interest when Simon N/A's it.

@MingweiSamuel *redeemed when you sell shares as well, apparently

How can this resolve in 2030 when the next closest star is 4 light years away? 😆 But I get it, the intention is "resolves to YES in 2030"…

@4fa There are some scenarios where this market could resolve NO:

• We find clear evidence that the Milky Way never existed and our observations were all wrong

• We're in a simulation that stops rendering the Milky Way

• False vacuum decay that started ~100,000+ years ago on the far side of the galaxy

Though some of these scenarios would also destroy Manifold servers...

@Simon74fe they have cloud backups of the server data, I don't think false vacuum decay could cause more than a few hours of downtime