So.... I just came by to dump a bunch of cash because I'm not seeing anything I super want to bet on right now.

Why is this at 95%?

Does that mean I could dump my cash here and then it'll go down to 92% right when I need mana?

This feels like... the price of bonds thing. Where you can lose money on a sure bet if you have to sell early.

If all the traders together suddenly see a chance to make 20% profits elsewhere, and everyone wants to do it at the same time, everyone sells here all at once. And so this... isn't actually that stable of a cash position in a group-think environment. If I expect 20% opportunities that everyone can see to pop up occasionally, I guess I should hold my mana instead of getting the 5% gains. Huh.

@DannyqnOht That's exactly what this market is supposed to model

@Simon74fe So.... What's a fair price here then?

Is this supposed to be a market that tracks the shared consensus across manifold of "how much will we need mana in the next month"? Like, if manifold users as a whole think they can get 20% without this market, then the price here is cheap; and if they think they can get 4% without this market, then the price here is expensive? What's a "correct" price, and how does that fit in with the added confusion of this resolving to true in 4 years (so at 95c there's actually some small growth here)?

Also, how can manifold as a whole expect to make more than the base 5%? Is this a market for "do you think you're worse than the average user at getting a return on your investment"? And only people who do think that should buy yes, and people who don't think that should not participate? I also can't see why anyone would buy no... Except in the hopes that the yes holders were actually wrong about their own goodness-at-betting (which while possibly true, definitely true initially for me, seems like the kinda bet I don't want to make in the long run).

@DannyqnOht They cancelled the 5% interest payments.

@travis ~Wait really? Last I saw was here, where did they say they were cancelling interest?~ Nvm link was at the top.

Guys I think the Milky Way is gonna be eradicated in 4 years.

For context, there's lots of discussion about the Jan 9th update here, which I assume is what prompted this market.

Interesting. I did not expect so much demand for 0.25% return per year

@Simon74fe Admins announced 5% APY on all markets, redeemed when the market resolves

I guess it won't pay any interest when Simon N/A's it.

@MingweiSamuel *redeemed when you sell shares as well, apparently

How can this resolve in 2030 when the next closest star is 4 light years away? 😆 But I get it, the intention is "resolves to YES in 2030"…

@4fa There are some scenarios where this market could resolve NO:

• We find clear evidence that the Milky Way never existed and our observations were all wrong

• We're in a simulation that stops rendering the Milky Way

• False vacuum decay that started ~100,000+ years ago on the far side of the galaxy

Though some of these scenarios would also destroy Manifold servers...

@Simon74fe they have cloud backups of the server data, I don't think false vacuum decay could cause more than a few hours of downtime