Will the Milky Way still exist in 2030? [long-term interest rate market]

1kṀ210k

2029

98%

chance

ALL

Resolves to YES if the Milky Way still exists in 2030.

I will treat this as an adversarial long-term interest market that should better reflect the interest rates in real long-term markets. I will try to keep the "No" price as high as possible. This may include:

Buying "No" shares
Buying "No" shares at inconvenient times to make people lose their league spot
Encouraging other traders to buy "No" shares

Also, I reserve the right to N/A the market at any point for any reason.

This is a factual market, so it should be ranked.

Market context

Manifold

Manifold Business Future

Interest Rates

Astronomy

Existential Risk

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filled aṀ100,000YES at 99.0% order

Interesting. I did not expect so much demand for 0.25% return per year

@Simon74fe Admins announced 5% APY on all markets, redeemed when the market resolves

I guess it won't pay any interest when Simon N/A's it.

How can this resolve in 2030 when the next closest star is 4 light years away? 😆 But I get it, the intention is "resolves to YES in 2030"…

@4fa There are some scenarios where this market could resolve NO:

We find clear evidence that the Milky Way never existed and our observations were all wrong
We're in a simulation that stops rendering the Milky Way
False vacuum decay that started ~100,000+ years ago on the far side of the galaxy

Though some of these scenarios would also destroy Manifold servers...