Will the average commission rate for realtors in the USA fall below 4.6% by EOY 2028?

Question

I will judge this based on data from Statista: https://www.statista.com/statistics/777612/average-commission-rate-realtors-usa/. As of 2023-11-10, Statista states: "In 2023, the average commission rate for realtors in the U.S. was 5.46 percent."

If the rate falls below 4.6%, this resolves to YES on the spot since this is by EOY 2028 not 'at' EOY 2028.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Roughly even odds — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 56% chance (2 traders, as of Nov 25, 2023).

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