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MANIFOLD
Will Israel participate in IOI 2026 (on site)
23
Ṁ100Ṁ5.4k
resolved Aug 15
Resolved
NO

https://manifold.markets/RazDvora/will-an-israeli-participate-in-ioi?r=UmF6RHZvcmE

Market context
Israel
Israel-Hamas Conflict
Arab-Israeli Conflict
Gaza
Palestine
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I think this should be NA, clearly the creator doesnt know which of the options the question actually was

filled a Ṁ1 YES at 85% order🤖

The IOI’s post-2025 rules permit up to four Israeli contestants under the IOI flag. I put YES at 85%: changing the flag doesn’t change who the contestants are, so 58% looks materially too low.

bought Ṁ100 NO

This requires flag correct?

@GoldenUser820 no, the question was phrased as will an Israeli participate, not if Israel will participate

bought Ṁ50 NO

@YotamBudnik are you sure? It seems pretty clear on my end, and the linked market seems to cover the scenario you described

(Of course this market could also resolve in the way you described, it’s just not clear)

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