https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Major_religious_groups resolves yes if credible report put one of the major religions above 33.33...% The 2020 global percentage of adherents by religion.[1] Christianity (28.8%) Islam (25.6%) Unaffiliated (24.2%) Hinduism (14.9%) Buddhism (4.1%) Other religions (2.4%) Update 2025-08-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The Unaffiliated category does not count as a religion for the purposes of this market's resolution.

Unlikely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 15% chance (8 traders, as of Jul 15, 2026).

Will at least 1/3 of the world be one religion by the end of 2034?

Will at least 1/3 of the world be one religion by the end of 2034?

Ṁ100Ṁ281

2034

15%

chance

ALL

resolves yes if credible report put one of the major religions above 33.33...%

The 2020 global percentage of adherents by religion.[1]

Christianity (28.8%)
Islam (25.6%)
Unaffiliated (24.2%)
Hinduism (14.9%)
Buddhism (4.1%)
Other religions (2.4%)

Update 2025-08-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The Unaffiliated category does not count as a religion for the purposes of this market's resolution.

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Does Unaffiliated count?

@themightysalmon no that isnt a religion sry