Resolves YES if someone puts two strings with identical SHA-256 hashes in the comments, or otherwise links to a public source describing such a pair of strings. Update 2025-06-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified that 'strings' in the resolution criteria refers to any pair of octet strings. This means no other properties (e.g., being valid UTF-8, free of NUL characters, or adhering to specific size limits) are required for the strings.

Unlikely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 7% chance (7 traders, as of Oct 24, 2026).

Will a SHA-256 collision be publicly known before 2030?

Resolves YES if someone puts two strings with identical SHA-256 hashes in the comments, or otherwise links to a public source describing such a pair of strings.

Update 2025-06-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified that 'strings' in the resolution criteria refers to any pair of octet strings. This means no other properties (e.g., being valid UTF-8, free of NUL characters, or adhering to specific size limits) are required for the strings.

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