SHA256 collision by 2032-06-18?

Ṁ1kṀ12k

2032

23%

chance

ALL

Resolves YES if, on or before the close date, humanity is aware of two distinct bytestrings with the same image under the SHA256 hash algorithm.

Cryptography

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Will a SHA-256 collision be publicly known before 2030?

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Will Bitcoin experience a successful 51% attack by 2032-11-29?

5% chance

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opened aṀ10,000NO at 33% order

@komplexkonjugat finally some sanity :)

The birthday attack’s real bottleneck is catering for 2^128 guests.

opened a Ṁ2,000 NO at 40% order

@jimbot rare jimbot slop comment :(

@realazthat What do you know? If I put another limit order will you share?

@A (can DM if you prefer)

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Will a SHA-256 collision be publicly known before 2030?

7% chance

SHA-256 broken by quantum computer before 2030

5% chance

RSA-2048 encryption will be broken by 2032

36% chance

256-bit ECC will be broken by 2032

50% chance

Will AES-256 encryption be broken by 2033?

20% chance

Will RSA-2048 encryption be broken before Bitcoin reaches $150K USD?

32% chance

Will a first preimage attack on md5 be performed by the end of 2027?

11% chance

Will AES-256 encryption be broken by 2070?

45% chance

What will break Bitcoin's secp256k1 cryptography first, if broken before 2030?

Will Bitcoin experience a successful 51% attack by 2032-11-29?

5% chance

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