Will a nuclear weapon be detonated before strong AGI?
27
Ṁ1kṀ2.3k2030
85%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
including tests; metaculus definition
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
Will we get AGI before 2032?
44% chance
Will a nuclear weapon be detonated before basic AGI?
35% chance
Will we get AGI before 2039?
67% chance
Will we get AGI before 2038?
65% chance
Will we get AGI before 2031?
41% chance
Will we get AGI before 2036?
57% chance
Will we get AGI before WW3?
41% chance
Will we get AGI before we get fusion reactors?
56% chance
Will AGI or widespread commercial nuclear fusion be developed first?
Will a nuclear weapon be fired in anger before 2075?
54% chance