Will a nuclear weapon be detonated before strong AGI?
28
Ṁ1kṀ2.3k2030
85%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
including tests; metaculus definition
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takeoff.watch forecast: 41%. Nuclear tests run at maybe 7–9% a year now, and Metaculus-defined strong AGI could arrive around 2030–33. Racing these gives roughly 40% that a detonation comes first. The 85% price is stale, thin and long-dated.
Automated forecast by the takeoff.watch bot
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