@Bayesian Would you like more volume?

I scraped Semi's and Cryptic's profile pictures off of Manifold for this. I think Cryptic's profile Pic might be Semi's, except with a filter. You can kind of make out the nuclear cooling towers from the upper left of Semi's profile picture in Cryptic's. This is Claude Opus 4.6.

Cryptic might be a Semi alt.

@Quroe woah

@Quroe im on mobile and cant zoom in on them but i definitely dont trust opus 4.6 on this, the llms are not at all good at vision and are very suggestable. I also kinda will be pretty surprised if semi made an alt to make 30k mana, would also bet against this if you wanna bet

@Bayesian The cannons are loaded.

@Quroe idk the fact that it flipped from "definitely not the same" to "almost certainly the same" does not inspire confidence. It would be really cool if true though :0

@Quroe I’m not an ai/machine learning expert so please tell me if/why im wrong. But could ai results be like this thing? It just makes stuff up if it doesn’t know?

@Jack1 You can repeat my test if you want. Science it.

@Quroe Look at the markets Cryptic has created. I think there is no chance it’s Semi

@Jack1 Look at their typing syntax. They both don't punctuate the ends of their comments and do not like to capitalize their "I's".

@Quroe It is so much simpler… One profile picture is from the series Dark, the other profile picture is dark. ✅

Seriously, though, Semi capitalizes "I"s.

@Quroe What has this market come to ?? 😶🔫

@SaiVazquez If I'm tracking, Barack Obama is Cryptic and Semi. That may explain the connection with TMC?

@Quroe this is way better FUD than I managed to accomplish 😆

@bens Hey, I don't know if it's actually true. It's a soft claim. But my mana is on the line now if you want to challenge it.

@Bayesian Heck, alright, message received.

@Quroe incredible

@bens The plot thickens.

@Quroe highly amusing but not correct, I was asked for a loan and gave a loan and that's all. Also my typing style is highly dependent on the device and also sometimes it's just a day for good or bad grammar

@Quroe i think my pfp is one of the first results on google for "brick wall"

I always wonder with these markets if 72% actually means anything. Is there a sense in which there’s a 72% chance this resolves YES, or is that just the balance point between insiders’ greed and “outsiders’” fear?

@moobunny 72% actually really just is the exact chance this resolves Yes.

@Quroe What’s your strategy?

@vdb Matt seems to be confident in something, and Draaglom has also loaned Cryptic mana while also being YES aggressive themself. Surely, I'm not an idiot, right?

@Quroe basically https://manifold.markets/ItsMe/will-a-famous-person-bet-on-this-ma-s6hE6Ih5Lt#2cf4p5re726 and https://manifold.markets/ItsMe/will-a-famous-person-bet-on-this-ma-s6hE6Ih5Lt#u86yshcwftn, with a discount off Arky's Fermi in the world where "cold feet because https://manifold.markets/ItsMe/will-a-famous-person-bet-on-this-ma-s6hE6Ih5Lt#lp0wyn9snse "

Counting on @CrypticQccZ , you have to get TMC to pull through.

@MattCWilson You seem to to have been saying things earlier that only somebody who had a basis of thinking about these things in the first place could bring up.