Update 2026-02-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator will wait until at least after the "Will a famous person bet on this" market resolves before resolving this market early to No.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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@Bayesian Maybe wait until after the "Will a famous person bet on this" market closes? Obv I have a horse in this race because I decided to funny haha match what semi put in, but to the extent there's deceit going on wrt that market I'd expect there's a fair chance it gets resolved pretty shortly afterward. I'd think it's likely semi is being truthful but I don't know them well enough I'd feel confident about it.