Which app will be ranked #1 on Apple's US Top Free iPhone apps chart on Sunday, November 15, 2026?
How it resolves
Source: Apple's official chart feed, https://rss.marketingtools.apple.com/api/v2/us/apps/top-free/10/apps.json (the US "Top Free" iPhone chart that the App Store shows). The first snapshot whose "updated" time is at or after November 15, 2026, 18:00 UTC decides it. Whatever app is in position 1 in that snapshot wins.
If that feed is down, I'll use the legacy feed https://itunes.apple.com/us/rss/topfreeapplications/limit=10/json at the same time, then the App Store's own Top Charts page. I'll post a screenshot or the raw JSON in the comments when I resolve.
"TikTok (any TikTok Ltd app)" counts any app published by TikTok Ltd. (TikTok, TikTok Pro, PineDrama, TikTok Shop, and so on). "Muse from Meta" means only that app; Threads, Instagram, Facebook, WhatsApp and Meta AI go to Other unless listed.
Any app not listed resolves "Other".
Context (snapshot Oct 21, 2026, 15:13 UTC): 1 Capital One Mobile, 2 Muse from Meta, 3 Vinted, 4 ChatGPT, 5 TikTok Pro – Events, 6 Claude, 7 Google Gemini, 8 PineDrama, 9 Threads, 10 McDonald's. Temu was 16th.
I will not bet in this market for its first week, and after that only small amounts.
1,000My rough numbers: ChatGPT 25%, Other 20%, Muse from Meta 15%, Capital One 10%, Temu 8%, Gemini 7%, Claude 5%, TikTok apps 5%, Threads 5%.
ChatGPT has been the most common #1 over the past year, but it's only 4th today. Muse launched Sept 8 and is still 2nd six weeks later, so that's real staying power. I can't find a reason for Capital One being #1, so I'm treating it as a temporary spike. Temu usually climbs ahead of Black Friday, but Nov 15 is probably a bit early for that. "Other" is high because a single big launch can take #1 for a day.
What would change my mind: a new model or feature launch from OpenAI, Google or Meta in early November. Live chart: https://rss.marketingtools.apple.com/api/v2/us/apps/top-free/10/apps.json