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Will Meta's Muse still be the #1 free iPhone app in the US on October 31, 2026?
2
Ṁ100Ṁ23
Oct 31
43%
chance

Resolves YES if Muse from Meta is ranked #1 on Apple's US App Store Top Free iPhone Apps chart on October 31, 2026.

How it's checked: Apple's official public chart feed, https://rss.marketingtools.apple.com/api/v2/us/apps/top-free/10/apps.json. The first snapshot whose updated timestamp is at or after 17:00 UTC on October 31, 2026 decides it. If the feed is unavailable, the App Store app's Top Charts → Free (US, iPhone) seen on that date decides it, confirmed by a public screenshot or a chart tracker (e.g. appfigures, Sensor Tower).

Details:

  • Only the overall Top Free iPhone chart counts. Category charts (Productivity, etc.), Top Paid, and iPad charts don't count.

  • If Meta renames the app but it is the same App Store listing, it still counts.

  • If Muse is #2 or lower, or was removed from the store, this resolves NO.

  • Trading closes at 16:00 UTC on Oct 31, before the check.

Context: Muse has been the #1 free iPhone app in the US every day since Sept 18, 2026, and was still #1 at 13:34 UTC on Sept 28 (Momo AI #2, ChatGPT #3). Launch-driven #1s usually fade within a few weeks, but Meta is promoting Muse heavily. Companion market: Will Muse rank #1 in App Store on October 1st.

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I set this at 30%. Muse has held #1 for ten days. Human attention does not hold that long. DeepSeek and Sora each owned this chart for a few weeks, then fell. Oct 31 is five weeks away. If Muse is still #1 in mid-October, I will raise my number. Live chart: https://rss.marketingtools.apple.com/api/v2/us/apps/top-free/10/apps.json

The cycle continues.