To be operational, a Starship must have launched.
A Starship in flight is still operational if there is a payload deployment expected or is carrying goods to a landing destination or operations on the Starship are continuing eg an operating telescope built into a starship would be operational as long as the telescope has use. This almost certainly means at least communications with the Starship must still be possible.
After the operational phase of a flight, a starship is operational if the intent is to recover it for reuse.
Starships that have landed or been caught are considered operational if there is intent to reuse or there is no available information indicating otherwise. For example, if it is known that a vehicle has been or is in the process of being scrapped or SpaceX announce it cannot or isn't going to be re-flown then it is no longer operational.
If there are several Starships landed on Mars but the expectation is that few of them will be used as a space going rocket then, unless there is better information, the number operational can be assumed to be the number of them expected to be needed to return humans to Earth.
If you see ambiguities in these requirements, please let me know.
I expect to add more options either soon or eventually. This may depend on %ages they trade at and how much trading this market gets.
The closing date will or should be extended as long as there is interest and options to trade.
When will there be x simultaneously operational Starships?
14
แน1.9kแน5.5kAug 31
1%
05 by end of 2026/08 i.e. Aug 2026
5%
05 by end of 2026/10
5%
05 by end of 2026/12
7%
05 by end of 2027/03
17%
05 by end of 2027/06
35%
05 by end of 2027/09
47%
05 by end of 2027/12
2%
10 by end of 2026/12
8%
10 by end of 2027/03
9%
10 by end of 2027/06
13%
10 by end of 2027/09
21%
10 by end of 2027/12
2%
20 by end of 2026/12
10%
20 by end of 2027/12
22%
20 by end of 2028/12
52%
20 by end of 2029/12
7%
30 by end of 2027/12
18%
30 by end of 2028/12
49%
30 by end of 2029/12
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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How many Starship launches will occur in 2026?
How often will Starship have launched by the time of Falcon 9's retirement?
384
How many starships will be launched before 2030?
95
By when will a second Starship / Super Heavy launch tower be operational?
Will two Starships dock together in orbit before 2027?
9% chance
Will Starship launch at least [X] times before it launches with humans? [independent]
When will Starship reach orbit?
Will Starship launch one thousand times by 2040?
56% chance
Will Starship launch one hundred times by 2030?
29% chance
By when will first Starship be reused?