This can be any type of Starship, tankers, depots, testing vehicles, etc. They don't need to transfer fuel for this market to resolve Yes, but the docking itself has to be successful.
If the docking happens in an unexpected way, like with a long hose or something, that would also count as Yes. Docking a Dragon to a Starship is not sufficient.
/Mqrius/will-two-starships-dock-in-orbit-be
/Mqrius/will-two-starships-dock-in-orbit-be-70faa1b11c89
/Mqrius/will-two-starships-dock-in-orbit-be-4762f93e6882
/Mqrius/will-two-starships-dock-in-orbit-be-5c7f9f1f2a7f
See also:
/Mqrius/will-spacexs-hls-uncrewed-demo-laun
Artemis 2 timeline: /Mqrius/will-artemis-ii-launch-before-2026
Artemis 3 timeline: /Mqrius/will-a-human-walk-on-the-moon-again
1,000This market at 15%
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/41142/starship-orbital-refueling-in-2026/
Will SpaceX successfully refuel a Starship in orbit during 2026? at 41% on metaculus
Hard to refuel without docking!
@ChristopherRandles 15% might be a little undervalued, but 41% definitely feels very overvalued.