"Major" will be defined as having at least a 10% chance of winning the primary presidential election in a major American party (currently only Democratic and Republican), according to FiveThirtyEight or betting markets when/if it is not available; or being the presidential nominee of a major American party.

The current median estimate is 0.11163948228074115 according to Manifold Markets prediction market (as of Feb 13, 2026).

When will the first major U.S. presidential candidate make AI safety part of their platform?

In 2028, will AI be at least as big a political issue as abortion?

94% chance

In 2028, will AI be a top 3 political issue for voters?

68% chance

By 2027, will a political party whose platform centers on AI rights get at least 1% of the vote in a national election?

3% chance

Will AI be among the top 5 most important issues for voters in the lead up to the 2028 election?

68% chance

Will an American presidential candidate in 2028 run on a platform that includes nationalizing or pausing AGI?

86% chance

Will a major 2028 Democratic presidential candidate propose creating a Cabinet-level department to deal with AI risk?

76% chance

Will a major-party U.S. presidential candidate deploy an AI clone to talk to voters before the 2028 election?

25% chance

Will any candidate accuse their competitor of "being an AI" in the 2028 election?

37% chance

Will a 2028 U.S. Presidential Candidate Be Interviewed by an AI Before 2028?

36% chance

How many times will AI be mentioned in the first Presidential Debate 2028?