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MANIFOLD
The UK Tory party will split into 2 parties or otherwise internally fall apart before 2026
33
Ṁ1kṀ5.7k
2027
3%
chance

More than 15 MPs must leave in some short burst to go somewhere else (as opposed to a large or small scandal). Or a generally agreed calamity.

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UK Politics
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UK Conservative Party
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Edit: thanks for updating. :)

I assume 15 MPs leaving gradually won't count? It needs to be part of some kind of splitting/collapsing event, rather than just people retiring and having individual scandals?

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