MANIFOLD
If X is the Republican nominee for president in 2028, will they win the presidency?
2
Ṁ1.5kṀ399
2028
57%
Chris Sununu
50%
Doug Burgum
49%
Nikki Haley
45%
Brian Kemp
45%
Pete Ricketts
45%
Tucker Carlson
45%
JD Vance
45%
Donald Trump
45%
Ron DeSantis
45%
Vivek Ramaswamy
45%
Tim Scott
41%
Elise Stefanik
40%
Marco Rubio
35%
Kristi Noem
27%
Elon Musk

Once a nominee is chosen at the Republican convention, all non-nominees will resolve N/A, leaving only the nominee.

Then this market will convert to "Will NOMINEE win the 2028 presidential election?"

I reserve the right to remove or modify duplicates or joke answers.

Base rate:

Market context
US Politics
Politics
Trump
Elections
Democratic Party
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