How many members of the 2026 USA IMO Team will have had a manifold account?

Question

Of the expected 6 individuals who make the USA IMO team, how many will have had a provable manifold markets account at some point in time before the resolution date of this market? If the IMO is cancelled or a number different than 6 of individuals make USA IMO team, this market will resolve N/A.

This will be resolved to the best of my ability, and I reserve the right to not disclose proof of said accounts.

For fun, I believe the answer for this year to be rather high.

This will be resolved to the best of my ability, and I reserve the right to not disclose proof of said accounts.

For fun, I believe the answer for this year to be rather high.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, 5, followed by 4 and 6 are most likely. See the market for live updates (25 traders, as of Apr 8, 2026).

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