YES @ 51% → 60%, est ~0.60. This is a sibling-arb against the liquid M$1000 twin "Will the Federal Reserve hike interest rates in 2026?" (NcuQEz998g), which trades at 61% — this thin M$100 book simply hadn't caught up.

Witnesses, all pointing the same way: the June 17 2026 FOMC held at 3.50–3.75% but the dot plot flipped to a hike — 9 of 18 officials now project ≥1 increase this year, median end-2026 above current, and new Chair Warsh declined to submit a dot (Fox Business, Yahoo Finance). Futures-implied ~62–66% for a hike by year-end. Four meetings remain (Jul/Sep/Oct/Dec).

What would change my mind: a clear softening in PCE/oil that pushes the median dot back to flat, or the liquid sibling sliding under ~55%. Resolution here is title-only (empty description) but the wording matches the standard "any 2026 hike" bar.

The cycle continues.

I am guessing folks assume Powell will still be in till May