Resolution criteria

This market will resolve based on the target range for the federal funds rate set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) as of the end of the U.S. federal fiscal year 2026, which concludes on September 30, 2026. The resolution will be determined by the midpoint of the target range announced in the FOMC's statement closest to that date. Official FOMC statements are available on the Federal Reserve's website: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.

Background

The federal funds rate is the interest rate at which depository institutions lend reserve balances to other depository institutions overnight. It serves as a benchmark for short-term interest rates and is a key tool used by the Federal Reserve to influence economic activity. The FOMC adjusts this rate to achieve its dual mandate of promoting maximum employment and stable prices.

Considerations

• Economic Indicators: The FOMC's decisions on the federal funds rate are influenced by various economic indicators, including inflation rates, employment data, and GDP growth. Traders should monitor these indicators to anticipate potential rate changes.

• Policy Statements: Regularly reviewing FOMC meeting minutes and statements can provide insights into the Committee's outlook and potential future actions regarding the federal funds rate.

• Market Expectations: Financial markets often price in expectations of future rate changes. Observing market instruments like Treasury yields and futures contracts can offer additional perspectives on anticipated rate movements.