This market resolves to the exact number of 25-basis-point rate cuts made by the Federal Reserve in 2026, including any cuts at the December FOMC meeting.
Emergency cuts outside scheduled FOMC meetings also count. The market remains open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET to capture such actions.
Rate cuts are counted as follows:
Each 25 bps of total reduction = 1 cut
Cuts of 1–24 bps = 1 cut
Example: A 50 bp cut counts as 2 cuts
The market will resolve early to “No” if the target number of cuts becomes impossible (e.g., more cuts have already occurred than the strike allows).
Resolution Sources:
Official FOMC statements for all 2026 meetings: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The Federal Reserve’s published target rate level and changes: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
1,000