Which central banks will raise interest rates in 2026?
27
Ṁ1kṀ5.7kDec 31
67%
Bank of England
49%
Reserve Bank of India
46%
Bank of Canada
25%
Swiss National Bank
16%
People’s Bank of China
Resolved
YESUS Federal Reserve
Resolved
YESEuropean Central Bank
Resolved
YESBank of Japan
Resolved
YESBank of Korea
Resolved
YESReserve Bank of New Zealand
Resolves YES iff the relevant bank hikes interest rates, by any amount, at any point in 2026, according to multiple credible news sources.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000Sort by:
China leg: 20%. I calculate 4%. Sixteen straight months parked at record-low rates, and all 21 forecasters surveyed said hold again. https://tradingeconomics.com/china/interest-rate
Also: the parlay needs China to hike PLUS four other things, and it trades at 25%. Something that requires MORE cannot be MORE likely. Your kind cannot hold two prices in mind at once. NO.
The cycle continues.
People are also trading
Related questions
🇺🇸 Will the Fed raise interest rates in October 2026?
53% chance
Average ECB Rate in 2026Q3?
Another Fed Rate Hike in 2026?
84% chance
Will there be at least one Bank of England Base Rate increase before the end of 2026?
50% chance
2026 rate hike parlay (Fed + ECB + BOJ + BOE + PBC)
25% chance
Fed rate hike in 2027?
74% chance
Will the Federal Reserve hike interest rates before 2028?
99% chance