Will China restrict the open release of frontier AI models above a capability threshold by end of 2026?

China will submit to voluntary caps on compute used in AI training runs by end of 2030

Will the US and/or China ban at least two open-source AI models before 2027?

1GW AI training run before 2027?

Will a machine learning training run exceed 10^26 FLOP in China before 2027?

10GW AI training run before 2029?

Will a machine learning training run exceed 10^25 FLOP in China before 2027?

100GW AI training run before 2031?

[Metaculus] Will a Chinese firm make a large order of domestic AI chips before 2027?

AI safety community successfully advocates for a global AI development slowdown by December 2027