For reference, DeepMind’s AlphaGo has probably played a hundred million games of self-play, while Lee Sedol has probably played 50,000 games in his life

Roughly even odds — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 47% chance (11 traders, as of Jun 13, 2024).

By 2030, AI can defeat the best Go players, training only on as many games as the best Go players have played.

By 2030, AI can beat the best human Starcraft 2 players at least 50% of the time, given a video of the screen.

69% chance

What is the next major competitive sport where AI beat top human player

Will an AI by OpenAI beat a super grandmaster playing chess by 2028?

56% chance

In 2028, will an AI be able to play randomly-selected computer games at human level, given the chance to train via self-play?

66% chance

Will AI wipe out AI before 2030?

9% chance

Will AI wipe out AI before the year 2030?

4% chance

By 2028, AI can play new levels of "Angry Birds" better than the best human players.

77% chance

Will we get "chess AGI" by 2030?

80% chance

In 2028, will an AI be able to play randomly selected computer games at human level without getting to practice?

47% chance

By 2040, AIs will be as good as the best human at any task that can be performed on a computer at that time and as fast

70% chance