By 2030, AI can beat the best human Starcraft 2 players at least 50% of the time, given a video of the screen.
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Starcraft 2 is a real time strategy game characterized by:

  • Continuous time play

  • Huge action space

  • Partial observability of enemies

  • Long term strategic play, e.g. preparing for and then hiding surprise attacks.

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I think an ai COULD do this, but I don't think anyone is working on this.

Alphastar was close, but when made to use the screen it couldn't quite keep up, and I think researchers are happy with that and won't revisit the topic.

Text and images and plugin use are much more exciting and profitable, so while I believe in principle the underlying capability of 2030 level tech will easily be able to do this, I don't think anyone will have implemented an ai/agent that can.

What limitations? And what if SC2 is discontinued by 2030?

There already is something called "Alpha Star" that can already win against e-sport pro-gamers: the program is currently being limited in the number of actions per second it can do, how much it can move the camera, etc... without it, I think this market could already resolve yes, so.. by 2030, it seems VERY likely to me.

@Laroussi

given a video of the screen

@firstuserhere What input does alpha star currently get? I thought it was a video of the screen, but mostly just by assumption

@Tumbles alphastar got to zoom out to the entire map at once. No map hacks so fog of war still applied, but able to click on any point at once.

That version won 5/5 in a exhibition match.

There was another version that had to play with a normal field of view and use inputs to scroll, and it lost 1/1 games.

@MatthewLeong That makes sense, very interesting thanks

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