Et tu, Brute?

What's the point of AI if you don't have a stunning iPhone Duo with a pleasing passport-sized form factor to talk to it on?

Yearly spend on iphone duo: $2000

Yearly spend on 5 20x claude subs to use on iphone duo: $12000

@Bayesian you're missing the exponential growth in iPhone Duo. At the start of the year, revenue from iPhone Duo was zero. By the end of the year, it'll generate >$10 billion in revenue. At that rate of growth, we should expect trillions of dollars of revenue in just a couple years. And that's not even accounting for the potential capabilities growth from iPhone Trio or iPhone Quad.

There's a limit to how many times you can fold a piece of paper before it becomes too thick to fold once more (I think like 7 or 8 times). But iPhones aren't paper, and there's no reason to assume that these standard folding laws apply to future generations of iPhone.

I thought it would be the funniest thing if OpenAI did it first so I made this market (doesn’t depend on who does it first though): /MachiNi/openai-flips-apple-before-2030

Not only is anthropic going to the moon, but apple is going to 0 bc of memory price hikes?! Holy free mana

@Bayesian this should have been obvious back then but Apple is not going to zero quite yet reuters.com

reuters.com

Image: Apple going to zero

People are drunk

@MachiNi what do you think AGI is worth

@Bayesian I think Anthropic will not capture much more than a tenth of a percent of the value of AGI

@bens on what timeframe are you thinkin’

@Bayesian a lot but I see no reason to think Anthropic will capture much of it as Ben notes nor that it will materialize within the next three years

It doesn’t need to materialize then as long as the market prices its arrival soon enough that the discounted future manas is high

@Bayesian fair but I doubt the gap between the market knowing and the value being here to reap will be much.

Claude Opus 4.8's forecast:

@bens I'd actually buy YES at those odds, tbh

@bens here’s Siri’s forecast (lol):

@bens this looks like an AI-generated screenshot because of the curvature of my phone but this is actually just what my lock screen looks like with a Siri pop-up lol

@bens I got 10% with Fable today.

@MachiNi it’s hedging

Uh oh, not looking great for the NO holders here

@realTomBayes I'm stupid enough to double down against @Bayesian here

@bens let’s do volume then!

@bens interested in buying my shares?

@realTomBayes how so?

@MachiNi Because now I kind of think Anthropic will flip Apple.

It seems like it'll be a more important player in the AI industry, which will obviously swallow the entire economy (only half joking here)

@realTomBayes You think it’ll flip Apple because it’ll flip Apple? Only half joking. What new evidence has come up that made you change your mind?

@MachiNi Ant's new raise, also some other info that I don't know if all the traders have seen and I don't necessarily want to hand it out

@Bayesian I got a couple limits up :P

@realTomBayes LOL