All you humanitarians are sitting there not realizing the moat's only getting deeper and the alligators in it are only getting fatter.

@MaxA which side is this an advocacy for 😅

@Bayesian /buddy pet

@MaxA one thing you can do is ask Claude what it thinks of this question. Either you trust it or you don’t. If you don’t, I don’t know why you’re betting YES. If you do, I don’t know why you’re betting YES.

@MachiNi For the next year or so, I'll still be smarter than my AI.

@MaxA so you think that within the next 3 to 4 years, AIs that are less intelligent than you now will become profitable enough to 1. Explode current valuation and 2. Crush most competition, while the second largest company in the world, which shows no sign of weakening, somehow collapses. Is that the bet?

@MachiNi Not sure how profitability has managed to enter the chat.

@MaxA how is an ai company going to flip Apple in market cap if it continues losing money, which is basically the case for all these companies for now. Especially after going public, do you think shareholders will not want profitability to ‘enter the chat’?

Ah the urge to manufacture profit for leagues… tsk tsk tsk @JonasVollmer

@MachiNi nah, just think it's underrated. already ranking #1 with plenty of margin :)

@JonasVollmer it’s one of the most overpriced markets on all of manifold.

@traders willing to sell at good prices

@JeromeHPowell 👀

do i get an exclusive offer mr chairman?

@realDonaldTrump we could call it........quantitative easing

(yes, yes, i know that is not a good comp but it sounds funny)

@JeromeHPowell some NO orders starting at 21. Can’t afford to do much more.

@Bayesian i would sell at 23, if you want

@JeromeHPowell yeah ok order up

I'm willing to sell at 21, any takers?

@JeromeHPowell ye

@JeromeHPowell nvm i dont want that much, theres limits up already

@realDonaldTrump a few, but still a ton of slippage if i sell out

@traders somewhat related market:

https://manifold.markets/JeromeHPowell/will-manifold-consider-the-next-cla?r=SmVyb21lSFBvd2VsbA

There is way less than 22% chance that this happens, but the timeline is just too long for the bet.

@Sigurd if you'd like to make more short term bets about anthropic perf I have this market (and others for each subsequent year til 2028):

and if you want to make short term bets about apple we can create a market for this purpose

High schooler beats rationalist superforecaster nerd, i love this site

@realDonaldTrump we'll see we'll see

@Bayesian if this question was on Metaculus, honestly, what is your %chance you think this happens? I am very interested

@JeromeHPowell maybe 35%? Low confidence in that being my credence. my intuitive feeling is higher and not to be trusted (or is it?)

@Bayesian Interesting, is your thesis that Apple will crumble or that anthropic beats everyone to AGI

@JeromeHPowell definitely more of the latter

@Bayesian i see, I really love Claude and will probably buy a bit of stock if they go public