Will Manifold Markets' daily active users (7-day average) exceed 18,000 by December 7, 2025?
Context: Manifold Markets has experienced declining daily active users (DAU), with a record low of 5,494 users in June 2025. Recently, activity has rebounded — as of November 9, 2025, the 7-day average DAU stands at 15,539.
This market tracks whether the platform can sustain this momentum and surpass 18,000 average DAU within the next month.
Resolution: This market resolves YES if Manifold's 7-day average DAU exceeds 18,000 on or before December 7, 2025. Resolution will be based on official Manifold analytics available at https://manifold.markets/analytics
Sources: https://manifold.markets/analytics
Update 2025-11-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has acknowledged confusion about which metric to use and has updated the question and description accordingly. The market will resolve based on the metric specified in the updated description (check the current description for the correct metric to use from https://manifold.markets/analytics).
1,000People are also trading
@creator You mean "Acitve traders" on the stats page? The "Active users" graph shows ~15k.
@xjp Thanks for clarifying that, Xi Jinping! It’s actually my first time creating a market and I let AI help me pull the stats — turns out the data was outdated (no surprise there 😅). I’ve updated the question and description accordingly. Feel free to adjust your prediction.
Really appreciate your participation — I’ll make sure to create better markets next time!
@xjp Interestingly all the links are the same and point to something nonexistent.
I suspect the last reply to you is, itself, AI-generated - though a human could also affect that breezy, upbeat acknowledgment of error and throw in a couple of em-dashes, I suppose...
@Stralor Thanks, neat. This makes the resolution criteria fake as stated, though, so have to pass on the market.