Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if, on or before January 29, 2029, the 7-day average of Daily Active Users (DAU) on Manifold Markets reaches at least 29,000. Otherwise, this market resolves to NO.

• Source of Truth: The metric will be verified using the official Manifold stats page.

• Specific Metric: Resolution will rely on the 7-day average of Active Users (not "Active Traders").

• Fallback Rule: If the official stats page is offline, defunded, or no longer displays this metric, the creator will resolve the market using official announcements from Manifold leadership, public database queries, or verified statements from the developers.

Background

Manifold Markets was founded in late 2021 as a play-money prediction market platform. Daily active user counts hovered around 1,700–2,000 in early 2024, but subsequently faced a lull. Following the launch and subsequent sunsetting of its real-money "sweepcash" feature in early 2025, user activity metrics dipped, occasionally reaching lows of under 1,000 daily active trading users. Reaching a 7-day average of 29,000 daily active users by January 2029 represents a roughly 15x–20x scale-up from mid-2020s levels.

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